Nigeria’s crude oil production exceeded its OPEC+ quota in February, contributing to the global rise in oil prices, which saw Brent crude trading above $70 per barrel.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its latest monthly report, revealing that total OPEC+ output increased by 363,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February, reaching 41.01 million bpd. This surge, led by Kazakhstan, presents challenges in maintaining production discipline among member states.
Nigeria, which has a designated OPEC+ production quota of 1.5 million bpd, recorded an output of 1.526 million bpd in January and 1.560 million bpd in February. The report also highlighted that other OPEC+ members, including the United Arab Emirates and Gabon, produced slightly above their quotas.
Kazakhstan, the world’s largest landlocked country, significantly contributed to the rise in crude supply, with production soaring to 1.767 million bpd in February, far exceeding its OPEC+ limit of 1.468 million bpd. The nation’s increased output, primarily driven by Chevron’s operations, has raised concerns over quota compliance within the group.
Despite concerns over rising production, OPEC maintained its oil demand growth forecast, projecting an increase of 1.45 million bpd in 2025 and 1.43 million bpd in 2026. The organization remains optimistic that global markets will adjust to evolving trade policies, including new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.
While OPEC continues to foresee sustained demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) presents a more cautious outlook, predicting a lower growth rate of 1.1 million bpd in 2025.
With Nigeria and other OPEC+ members exceeding their production caps, market analysts anticipate further discussions on quota enforcement in the coming months.
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